On Sunday the bells of Holland were ringing 350 times to mark the level of CO2 in Parts Per Million that is the ‘bottom line for humanity’ (NASA). At the same time, I was crawling off the football pitch following a head on collision with the opposition goal keeper. He put all of his weight behind a kick to my left knee. No penalty given. The medical staff are saying that could be it for me until the new year. Some spectators said I turned green, others had it down as more of a grey-white. Either way, it hurt.
Back home with a cup of tea and my leg up, I was looking at the GA facebook page. There was another comment (there have been a few), from someone called Mick, saying that we don’t need ‘pop stars’ going on about climate change, and anyway it’s probably all just an excuse to raise taxes. But the thing is Mick, you either take the view that, for reasons unknown, 1000s of scientists from all around the world have conspired together to create the biggest scam in history. Or they’re telling it like it is and we’ve got a big and urgent problem on our hands. I think the second of these is the more likely of the two, so I reckon it’s up to us to get informed and demand action because governments don’t do anything fast unless they have to. I don’t buy into the idea that anyone who writes songs has to remain silent. After that, I found lots of other comments saying ‘nice one’, so that helped the knee a bit.
At Copenhagen it’s approaching crunch time. Not that you’d know if from the weekend news, where it was hard to find mention of it. Given that potential minor disasters are usually so popular, it really should be the only headline news. There’s still a lot to be sorted out. Su Wei, China’s top negotiator, was maybe being a bit optimistic when he said that by Thursday, when the prime ministers and presidents arrive, “I hope the only question we will have for leaders is how to pronounce Copenhagen.” The question he might have to explain to his leader is why he described the massive weekend protests in Copenhagen as “constructive as it shows the interest of the general public.” Not the kind of rules that normally apply in Beijing.
A happy ending was looking less likely last night when African countries indicated their leaders would refuse to take part in the final summit unless significant progress was made on finance, targets, and levels of cuts. That covers just about the whole agenda.
One insider said we shouldn’t panic because the punctuation was looking better than it did last week. In the latest draft text, the areas of disagreement are now being marked in square rather than semi-circular brackets. Apparently this is real progress. “We are now using square brackets, which signify something solid, instead of squiggley brackets, which were far less substantial,” he explained.
Either set of brackets is of cold comfort to Jorgen Manniche. As the 69 year old’s vigil outside the danish parliament enters is 15th year, he was explaining that his original protest against the Iraq war has been extended to cover climate change. Gritting his teeth against the winter winds, he had to accept that a bit of warmth wouldn’t go amiss. “This is a tough life for me, especially in heavy rain or snow. A little more warmth would be nice,” he said. “But I only wish for local warming. I know that in the world, people are dying from heat.”
He may well get more heat than he’s bargained for if a group of negotiators from developed countries get their way. In 2007, the IPCC scientists said we need 25-40% emissions cuts relative to 1990 levels to avoid unmanegable dangers. These reductions now look unlikely. At the minute, even the most ambitious provisional offers made by all countries amount to a reduction of only 18 per cent. To deal with this shortfall, the old trick of calling for a ‘review’ has come into play. This would put back the process of deciding the full level of emissions reductions for another 6 years. It could be a catastrophic delay.
It’s not only scientists who think so. The Climate Group, an environmental group including some of the world’s biggest companies - BP, HSBC and Google amongst them - said that, even if all the provisional offers of CO2 reductions were delivered, emissions in 2020 would still be 5 billion tonnes higher than the atmosphere could safely handle. This would mean that global temperatures would rise more than 2C, with the result that “large parts of the world would become uninhabitable.”
So the question is, do you push for the CO2 reductions the science says we need immediately and rule out anything that will deliver less than that. Or do you try and get any kind of deal on the table to establish the principles and set the process rolling? This is one of the many points of difference between rich and poor nations. Go for the reductions the science says we need , and the US and others won’t agree to it. Go for anything less and a lot of the poor nations will go under or become desert.
As temperatures rise in the conference hall, things are hotting up outside too. The police have been making full use of powers recently granted by the Danish parliament to arrest anyone who they THINK is going to break the law. The result of this psychic policing has been the arrest of 1200 protestors over the weekend. A lot of them were kept handcuffed in the freezing cold for hours, with no toilets or water.
It might make more sense for the police to go and find the people doing this.
This is the scene in Indonesia where a company called Sinar Mas are preparing the way for more and more Palm Oil plantations. Sinar Mas are a key supplier to Unilever. After Greenpeace presented a dossier to Unilever over the weekend, they have agreed to stop buying Palm Oil from Sinar. A few thousand square km of trees will be saved - depending on where Unilever buy it from next time. Check your palm oil products for RSPO certification.
So a week to go, and warnings of a ‘train crash’ from African countries. Archbishop Desmond Tutu presented the chairman of the talks with a symbolic Countdown clock. Not that many were there to see it. Tempers flared outside the conference centre as thousands queued to get in. Most heard comment was “What do you mean there is no VIP queue?”. Not ones to miss an opporunity, protest groups surrounded their trapped prey, and bombarded them with evidence of the urgency of the global warming crisis.
UK Climate Change Secretary Ed Milliband was leading the calls for swift progress. ‘I think that the very clear message for negotiators and ministers is we need to get our act together and take action.’ Good luck to him. A few more staff on the door might help the negotiators and ministers to get in.
Andy Cato
