Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi found himself between a rock and hard place. He came out in favour of the levels of African climate change aid proposed by the EU in October. This is about 25% of what Africa says it needs to cope. It was unclear whether his change of heart stemmed from fears that the talks may end in failure and leave Africa to its fate, or because of some long and persuasive lunches from western negotiators who are attempting to break the opposition of African delegates. Awudu Mbaya, president of the Pan-African Parliamentarians Network on Climate Change, wasn’t happy. “If Prime Minister Meles wants to sell out the lives and hopes of Africans for a pittance he is welcome to, but that is not Africa’s position”.
On the other side of the world, Ian Plimer, hero of the climate sceptics, faced the music on the ABC network in Australia. He has been running for cover for several months now, after being asked to attend a public debate on his claims, but finally there was nowhere left to hide. The TV interview didn’t go well for him. He maintains that volcanoes produce more carbon dioxide than human activity. The US Geological Survey (USGS) reports that human beings produce 130 times as much CO2 as volcanoes. “Oh but that doesn’t include underwater volcanoes” said Mr Plimer. “Yes it does” said the USGS.
Back in Copenhagen, Senator Kerry jetted in yesterday to reassure the world that the US will pass climate legislation. The idea, he said, was ‘picking up support’. Better late than never. Whether the US is actually going to cut its emissions or not has been a question that has crippled the negotiations. It has allowed China and India to stall on their own commitments, and has created resentment amongst the poor countries on the sharp end of climate change. Senator Kerry also said that they would only pass legislation if China and India agreed to ‘transparency’ in the monitoring of their emissions cuts. India’s Secretary for Economic Affairs Jairam Ramesh, replied “I keep telling Americans let me have some transparency about the word transparency.” Another item for the ever growing agenda.
Here are a few more matters outstanding.
1. American negotiators were demanding that all appearances of the world “shall” be replaced by the word “should”.
2. There is no agreement on how many agreements there should be. Developing countries would like to see an extension of the existing Kyoto protocol. Industrialised countries would like to see Kyoto scrapped, or merged into a new agreement.
3. Throughout the night on Tuesday, US diplomats were on Bracket Duty again, inserting them throughout the ‘long term action plan’ text. The sheer number of brackets have blocked any further discussions of this document.
4. Nauru’s president, Marcus Stephen, demanded proper legal negotiations on the temperature target. “The science tells us that we must limit the rise in global temperature to well below 1.5C to preserve the chance of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. To accept anything less would mean the destruction of our marine ecosystems, shortages of food and water, and the relocation of our communities. Please tell me how is this practical?”
If that’s not enough to be getting on with, the world’s two most radical presidents arrived in town to try and persuade delegates to go a step further.
“The real cause of climate change is the capitalist system. If we want to save the earth then we must end that economic model. Capitalism wants to address climate change with carbon markets. We denounce those markets and the countries which promote them. It’s time to stop making money from the disgrace that they have perpetrated.”
That was the verdict of Bolivian President Evo Morales. Pointing at the rich nations, he continued,
“Our objective is to save humanity and not just half of humanity. Our objective is to reduce climate change to under 1C. Above this many islands will disappear and Africa will suffer a holocaust.”
Sadly, limiting warming to 1C would need an end to all emissions right now and billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide to be sucked from the air and stored; something that we don’t know how to do.
Morales was followed by fellow radical, President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela.
“The total income of the 500 richest people in the world is greater than the 450m poorest living on $2 a day. We have to change direction. How long are we going to tolerate the current international economic order…If capitalism resists we have to do battle with it. If we do not, then mankind, the greatest creation in the universe, will disappear.”
However, on the basis that Socialism starts at home, Chavez has got some work to do. Interviewed for the BBC, Venezuelan shopkeeper Omaya Davila summed up her dilemma.
“Between buying myself a car and getting breast surgery, I decided on my breasts, and I think the sacrifice was worth it.”
Had she decided to buy a car, she would have found BMW, Audi and Hummer dealerships on every corner. The source of all this wealth? Oil.
Sharing a platform with the South American radicals was Prince Charles. Unsurprisingly for a Royal, he thought we needed corporate responsibility rather than revolution.
”We appear intent upon consuming the planet…..our global fisheries will collapse by 2050 and….in the last 50 years we have degraded 30 per cent of global topsoil and destroyed 30 per cent of the world’s rainforests.”
He was soon in the firing line however, when it was revealed that he’d arrived on a private jet. But then if we excluded everyone who has burned more than their fair share of fossil fuels from contributing to this debate, it would be a pretty empty room.
It was a good day for trees. Britain was making more generous contributions, this time to a fund aimed at ending deforestation. Working alongside the US and other developed nations, there was an agreement to give $3.5 billion over the next 3 years to slow the rate of forest loss. In a busy day for the UK cheque book, we also pledged £153m to the “Scaling-up Renewable Energy Programme” - a scheme focused on installing renewable energy in low income countries. To put that amount into perspective, the US is on £31m.
It was a bad day for Shell. The oil company has spent millions on advertising around Copenhagen. It’s logo, with promises of a bright, low carbon and innovative future have been unavoidable of late. But Madrid-based environmental auditing company Management & Excellence just finished its annual survey. It put Shell’s environmental credentials last of all the western firms. It’s at the bottom of the table with two Chinese oil giants and the Russian state energy company Gazprom. None of these are known for their commitment to renewable energy. Shell’s performance should come as no surprise. Long before the latest adverts ran, Jeroen van der Veer, Shell president until recently, said of wind, solar and hydrogen power: “I don’t expect them to grow much at Shell from here.”
Another day, another dose of bad environmental news. Scientist Robert Kopp of Princeton University and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research spent yesterday predicting much higher sea level rises than those outlined in the UN’s IPCC report. “Everyone’s known that the IPCC’s last numbers were underestimates” said Kopp. Combining data from historical records and current melting patterns, it seems we’re on track for an overall sea level rise of 6-9 meters, with the first 1.4m coming during the lifetime of someone born now.
Trapped between rising seas, square brackets and draft agreements, UK Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband was becoming exasperated.
“It would be a tragedy if we failed to agree because of the substance. It would be a farce if we failed to reach agreement because of the process. People will find it extraordinary that this conference that has been two years in the planning…..and with such important stakes, is at the moment being stalled on points of order.”
So it’s all eyes on President Obama to turn things around. But Democrat Edward Markey, co-author of a climate bill stuck in the Senate, said the president “is not going to go further. … The words he is going to use are the same words he has been using for the last two weeks.”
There have been some good words from the President during the last two weeks however. He visited a DIY store and said that it’s “sexy” to better insulate your home.
Cheery news of the day came from Gordon Brown, who said again that the summit could end in “deadlock”.
48 hours to go.
Andy Cato
